As of yesterday, 5/13/98, the MId-Atlantic Council and Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission, working in joint session, completed work on the public hearing document for "Amendment One to the BLuefish Management Plan." The work took longer than expected due to the very weak data that was available from the previous bluefish stock assessments.

Early data indicated an extremely depressed stock, which would have entailed drastic management measures to reduce fishing mortality, ie: lower bag limits, minimum sizes, possible seasonal closures. However, there was considerable doubt expressed by Council and Commission members and members of the Technical Committee and the S&S group, since many factors tended to mitigate the findings. Those factors included no truncation in age classes; a common belief that still exists concerning the NMFS' survey methods failure to accurately capture the size and scope of the stock in offshore waters; uncertainty about the aging methods and data. Therefore, the Scientific and Statistical Committee was reconvened over the last few months to act as a proxy Stock Assessment Review Committee to explore other ways of assessing the stocks. They completed their work just in time for this meeting.

Of interest were findings that indicated that bluefish stocks were, while still considerably reduced from high levels in the late 1980s, were not in as bad shape as originally thought. They also found that bluefish might not be as long lived as previously thought. They were operating under an assumption that bluefish lived to be 15 years old, but new otalith aging studies seem to indicate they only live to be 8, which means they grow and recruit into the stocks at a much faster rate than anyone previously thought. Also, there is still uncertainly and sceptisicm about the weak data being captured concerning the offshore contingent of the stocks, which will receive more attention in coming years.

The figures developed from this new assessment data for fishing mortality rates was not as bad as the earlier data indicated. The new data indicated a clear and dramatic downward trend in recreational effort on bluefish and a major increase in the number of fish being released by recreational participants, almost 60% in recent years compared to less than 10% just ten years ago. Landings have plummeted from highs of 50,000 metric tons to under 10,000 in 1995/96 and have remained stable there. This is recognition of a significant conservation effort by recreational participants and also realization that recreational effort once heaped on bluefish stocks has been redirected to other fisheries that have been rebuilt or are being rebuilt, primarily striped bass and fluke.

Also recognized was that recruitment of bluefish is on the rise again, stocks are starting to reverse the declines of the last ten years and showing some upward movement, even with the poor offshore surveying methods, and that 1997 was a good year for spawning success and recruitment. This is all good news.

This means that there is no significant new rebuilding effort necessary if we maintain the low effort and landings levels we are presently at, or only increase them slightly. However, the Sustainable Fisheries Act requires that we implement a ten year rebuilding program since bluefish are still classed as overfished from the high levels of the past.

The Council and ASMFC committees completed a range of rebuilding scenarios at the meeting that will be presented at public hearings soon, so a final plan can be adopted at the October meetings. SFA requires rebuilding in no more than ten years, so scenarios presented will include a five year and ten year approach. The preferred alternative (Scenario 2A) is a nine year rebuilding plan that holds the mortality rate at F=0.52 for the first three years, actually higher than the current level of harvest, and steps down the mortality rate as needed in the third year and again in the sixth year. If the stocks continue to rebuild and recreational efforts and release rates continue at current levels, there might be no need to reduce bag limits or implement additional management measures on recreational fishermen below current levels, which would be good news.

Under this scenario, recreational bag limits will probably remain at ten fish for 1999 and 2000 and if the stocks continue to rebound as a result of reduce effort, there probably won't be the need for any additional reductions or mortality controls. There will be an option for a 12 inch size limit (recreational and commercial) included in the hearing document with some type of state-by-state conservation equivalency, but the numbers seem to indicate this is not really necessary unless current recreational trends reverse and harvest begins to increase. The recreational landings in 1997 were 7,606 mt. In 1999, recreational landings can increase to about 11,000 mt, but if that level is not achieved and we continue to fish under current patterns, rebuilding will take place faster.

Under the plan, commercial harvest will be forced to further decrease to about 2,550 mt in 1999 from levels of about 4,600 mt in recent years. This is due to the fact that commercial interests wanted their harvest level unlinked from the recreational catch and established at a percentage of the Total Allowable Catch. The negotiated ratio agreed upon was 83% rec/17% com. But no one figured this drastic reduction would occur as a result, with the possible exception of astute Council member, Dusty Rhodes. Commercial fishermen who have seen their harvest levels drop from the 7,000 mt level in the 1980s to as low as 3,500 mt in the 1990s. This additional reduction to 2.550 mt is perceived by many Council and Commission members as being unfair and inequitable, so an option will be presented in the hearing document that could remedy the situation and bring more balance to the harvest figures in the first few years of rebuilding. Basically, it will be a small loan of about 2,000 mt from the recreational Total Allowable Landings to the commercial TAL, if recs do not use their full quota. This was favorably received by commercial and recreational representatives on the committee as a way to bring more fairness to the early years of rebuilding without changing the already agreed upon allocation ratio of 83/17. Commercial fishermen have reduced their catch along with recreational fishermen in the past ten years, reduced bycatch and worked to stop the stock decline. Considering that recreational users will most likely not come close to landing their new, higher TAL in 1999 and 2000, it seems a sensible thing to do. Just remember, this is not a done deal, but an option in the hearing document put there for your comments. Further consideration of this early year transfer is predicated on favorable public comment. As soon as the stocks are rebuilt enough to maintain the commercial TAL at the 4,600 mt level, or recreational use their entire TAL, whichever comes first, the transfers will be halted.