How Many Fluke Are In the Ocean

(from Jersey Coast Anglers Association October 2006 Newsletter)

According to the gurus at National Marine Fisheries Service the total biomass for 2005 is 105 million pounds of fluke.  Now let’s do a little calculation.  The quota for 2005 was 30 million pounds.  The commercial catch was 17 million pounds and the recreational share of that was down according to the Marine Recreational Survey which came up with 10 million pounds.  Okay, that’s 27 million pounds caught and retained out of 105 million pounds or about 25.7 percent of the fluke. 

            Now, if you recall, recreational fishermen were releasing anywhere from 10 to 80 fish that did not make the size limit.  New Jersey had the lowest size limit at 16.5”.  Other states had upwards of 18”. 

            Let’s do a simple calculation.   Assume that a keeper weighs 2 pounds and a short weighs one pound.  10 million pounds divided by 2 equals 5 million fish.  Assume a 20- to-1 ratio of shorts to keepers.  Five million fish times 20 times one pound equals 100 million pounds of fluke.  Add that to the 27 million pounds kept by commercial and recreational fishermen and we have 127 million pounds of fluke.         

            That number is more than the total estimated biomass of fluke that NMFS came up with.  Could it be that recreational anglers released the entire estimated biomass of fluke?  I know that recreational anglers are good, but are we that good?

Has it occurred to anyone at NMFS that maybe, just maybe, there is something wrong with their data?  Could it be that the models they use to estimate the number of fluke in the ocean is incorrect?  Could the assumptions be wrong?  Just last year NMFS recognized that the data was flawed and made corrections.  Could the corrections have been wrong?

Maybe there are a lot more fluke in the ocean than are being estimated by the experts at NMFS.  In fact, I’m positive there are more fluke in the ocean than are being estimated.       

            Is it logical, does it make sense, is it remotely possible in anyone’s mind that recreational anglers could catch and release the entire biomass of fluke?

            One of us is way off the mark.  

            It appears that NMFS is using a lot of flawed data, has disregarded data supplied by outside sources and made mistaken assumptions.  My quick, common sense analysis clearly demonstrates that the total biomass is being grossly underestimated.  I believe that by applying a little logic and common sense it is clear that the total biomass is currently more than the goal of 204 million pounds that NMFS wants to achieve.   NMFS must come up with a total biomass estimate that makes good common sense and can be confirmed.

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