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(from Jersey Coast Anglers Association January 2004 Newsletter)
As the recreational AP representative from New Jersey, I attended this daylong stock assessment meeting. The technical committee stated the current stock of Atlantic Menhaden is not considered over fished and that overfishing is not occurring on a
coast-wide basis. This, however, was met with a degree of skepticism from some of the members of the AP.
A new forward-projecting statistical catch-at-age model was used as the assessment tool for Atlantic menhaden in 2003. Previous stock assessment analyses of Atlantic menhaden have used untuned virtual population analysis (VPA) methods. The essence of forward-projecting age structured models is to simulate a population that is projected forward in time like the population being assessed. Quantities to be estimated are systematically varied from starting values until the simulated population's characteristics statistically match available data on the real population as closely as possible. Natural mortality rate (M) was estimated from the Commission's Multispecies Virtual Population Analysis (MSVPA) as an age-specific rate.
The AP agreed that the use of Age Specific Ms are a better approach than what has previously been used in assessments. The AP agreed with the peer review panel that the MSVPA should be more inclusive of predators (marine mammals, seabirds, other fish, etc.). The AP agreed that the move from an SSB based benchmark to a fecundity-based benchmark is a step in the right direction .The AP supported the change in Fs (F=measurement of the rate of removal of fish from a population by fishing) recommended by the Technical Committee.
A great deal of concern was expressed by panel members and the audience concerning a perceived severe depletion that is occurring in Chesapeake Bay. The panel questioned the continued inaction by the management board relative to the importance of menhaden as a forage species and a filter feeder. It was felt by some members of the AP that some of the hypoxic and diseased striped bass problems in the Chesapeake were very possibly related to localized menhaden overfishing.
In 2003, 70 % of the reduction catch came from Chesapeake Bay. There was no fishing off of NJ until late August, and that occurred 10 miles offshore of Cape May, and lasted for less than a week.
Bait landings have gone from 5% to 17% of the total catch over the past few years. The 2003 catch was approximately 590,000 metric tons. The overall purse seine catch was down approximately 10% from 2002 and 10% over the past 5 years average catch. The age composition of the catch for 2003 appeared to be 87% age 1 and age 2 fish, and the remainder on 3+-year-old fish.
The AP made the following recommendations to the management board:
